Mantic

Friday Forecasts #5

Five forecasts: Republican seats in the house depending on the price of oil over or under $85, global insurance losses from natural catastrophes…

Aug 7 • Mantic

July 2026

Friday Forecasts #4

5 forecasts: a target and a conditional on the second round of the French presidential election, US government shutdown, sources of electricity in…

Jul 31 • Mantic

Friday Forecasts #3

5 forecasts: Anthropic IPO, Brazil presidential election, measles in the US, US-Saudi nuclear enrichment, and FDIC Bank failures.

Jul 24 • Mantic

2

Friday forecasts #2

5 forecasts: the price of oil in December as our target forecast, conditioned separately on the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the result of the US…

Jul 17 • Mantic

1

4

Towards superhuman forecasting

Scott Jeen's invited talk at ICML 2026

Jul 15 • Mantic

2

28:08

Friday forecasts #1

AI job cuts, the French presidential election, Iranian crude, Lebanese occupation, and semi-annual reporting.

Jul 10 • Mantic

3

1

Mantic at the ICML AI Forecasting Workshop

An invited talk, three workshop papers, and a dinner

Jul 8 • Mantic

1

1

May 2026

The 28 most important questions about Iran

Which questions would we ask if we were unconstrained by trading volume, settlement contracts, or any factor that shapes which forecasts get produced?

May 29 • Yann Riviere - exmateriae and Mantic

10

3

1

April 2026

A new kind of forecasting tournament

Ben Day & Toby Shevlane in collaboration with others at Mantic.

Apr 3 • Mantic

5

1

March 2026

Forecasting the Iran crisis in real time

Gabriel Fritsch in collaboration with others at Mantic

Mar 24 • Mantic

3

1