Archive - Mantic

Winning tactics for stress-testing AI forecasters

Field reports from the top-performers in our new forecasting tournament.

Aug 21 • Mantic

US GDP if the AI bubble pops - Friday Forecasts #7

Five forecasts: hyperscaler capex and the GDP growth if the bubble pops, China-Philippines military clash, Starship's first orbit, and when 10% of a…

Aug 20

Will Ebola reach the US? - Friday Forecasts #6

5 forecasts: Strait of Hormuz transits, the impact of the number of Bundibugyo cases on the possibility of a US case, the Bank of Japan interest rate…

Aug 13 • Mantic

How can Republicans hold the House? - Friday Forecasts #5

Five forecasts: Republican seats in the house depending on the price of oil over or under $85, global insurance losses from natural catastrophes…

Aug 7 • Mantic

July 2026

The next shutdown - Friday Forecasts #4

5 forecasts: a target and a conditional on the second round of the French presidential election, US government shutdown, sources of electricity in…

Jul 31 • Mantic

Will Lula stay President in Brazil? - Friday Forecasts #3

5 forecasts: Anthropic IPO, Brazil presidential election, measles in the US, US-Saudi nuclear enrichment, and FDIC Bank failures.

Jul 24 • Mantic

Hormuz and oil conditional forecasting - Friday forecasts #2

5 forecasts: the price of oil in December as our target forecast, conditioned separately on the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the result of the US…

Jul 17 • Mantic

Towards superhuman forecasting

Scott Jeen's invited talk at ICML 2026

Jul 15 • Mantic

28:08

Next French President? - Friday forecasts #1

5 forecasts: AI job cuts, the French presidential election, Iranian crude, Lebanese occupation, and SEC semi-annual reporting.

Jul 10 • Mantic

Mantic at the ICML AI Forecasting Workshop

An invited talk, three workshop papers, and a dinner

Jul 8 • Mantic

May 2026

The 28 most important questions about Iran

May 29 • Yann Riviere - exmateriae and Mantic

April 2026

A new kind of forecasting tournament

Ben Day & Toby Shevlane in collaboration with others at Mantic

Apr 3 • Mantic

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