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Mantic forecast Lula at 45.12%. He got 45.16%.
We were closer than the polls on both front-runners and on the vote gap, for three weeks running. For Lula, Mantic was especially close at 45.12%: he…
Oct 5
•
Yann Riviere
6
Election Bonanza: Midterms, Brazil, France, Israel, Nigeria - Friday Forecasts #13
5 forecasts: Democratic Senate wins in Trump strongholds, Lula’s needed votes in the first round, France’s far-right vote, Israel’s government mandate…
Oct 1
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Mantic
and
Yann Riviere
September 2026
Backtesting against Polymarket
Mantic is better calibrated and diversifying to the market
Sep 29
•
Mantic
8
1
When will a non-robot AI kill a human? - Friday Forecasts #12
AI-caused death, an AI-development pause following it, nuclear restarts, Google’s appeal and the Moon race.
Sep 25
•
Mantic
and
Yann Riviere
4
Xi–Trump: What Will the Summit Actually Deliver?
Export controls, tariffs, AI talks, Taiwan: what should we expect the 2026 US-China Summit to produce?
Sep 21
•
Yann Riviere
Mantic raises $25mn to scale superhuman AI forecasting
Toby Shevlane & Ben Day
Sep 18
8
2
Republicans will lose 5 more seats if the Fed hikes rates - Friday Forecasts #11
5 forecasts: the 2026 House result and how the Fed’s next hike moves it, Starship’s first orbital attempt, the Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery merger…
Sep 16
6
Lula or Bolsonaro: what changes for Brazil? - Friday Forecasts #10
A Brazil election special: who wins and what changes for deforestation, fiscal balance, tariffs and foreign investments policy under a Lula or Bolsonaro…
Sep 10
3
Will the Times settle with OpenAI? - Friday Forecasts #9
5 forecasts: the NYT v. OpenAI copyright case, IAEA access to Iran's nuclear sites and the same forecast if the fighting stops, Japan's next yen…
Sep 3
•
Mantic
1
August 2026
Schengen turning on itself? - Friday Forecasts #8
5 forecasts: Schengen border controls, jet fuel with Hormuz shut, the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger, and a Meta–Anthropic compute deal.
Aug 27
•
Mantic
3
Winning tactics for stress-testing AI forecasters
Field reports from the top-performers in our new forecasting tournament.
Aug 21
•
Mantic
8
1
1
US GDP if the AI bubble pops - Friday Forecasts #7
Five forecasts: hyperscaler capex and the GDP growth if the bubble pops, China-Philippines military clash, Starship's first orbit, and when 10% of a…
Aug 20
2
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