After last weekend’s violence and looting that accompanied, and sometimes even preceded, the demonstrations, the immediate questions are practical. How many people will protest again, how many will be arrested, how costly will damages become, and how far will the government go to restore order?
Reuters reported more than half a million demonstrators on October 17 which, even if not exceptional by French standards, shows the breadth of the movement. The scope of the damages is already estimated close to a billion euros despite the scale of the police response: some 2,400 arrests nationwide, the largest amount of the last 50 years.
I asked Mantic for six forecasts to track the immediate disruption, the cost and the political fallout.
Numerical headlines are medians; 50% ranges are the 25th–75th percentiles.
Saturday’s turnout
233,000 demonstrators on 24 October. 50% range: 147,000–362,000. Explore the forecast →
More than half a million people demonstrated last Saturday1 but curfews and the fear of stronger police response might stop many from protesting. How many will show up?
Arrests
1,400 protest-related arrests on 24 October. 50% range: 780–2,300. Explore the forecast →
Fewer protesters doesn’t necessarily mean fewer arrests as police instructions are known to vary from one event to the other. After the largest amount of arrests in over half a century, will a new record be broken this weekend to restore order?
The insurance bill
€845 million in insured losses. 50% range: €624 million–€1.10 billion. Explore the forecast →
France Assureurs estimates that insured damages should remain below 1.2B euros but have not made a final estimate, with several weeks left to file a claim.2 How much will that bill increase in the following weeks?
Curfews by the end of the month
Median: one of five cities, with 27% chance of no curfews. Explore the forecast →
Eleven cities, among which Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux, Lille and Nice have been under some level of curfew, limited by age or location, since Monday. Will these curfews still be there by the end of October?
A state of emergency
9.7% before 15 November Explore the forecast →
Political commentators argue Macron’s allocution was initially supposed to announce a state of emergency but the President chose a lighter stance before his speech. The government still has options to tighten restrictions without declaring a state of emergency. More violence could change that.
Sebastien Lecornu’s survival as prime minister
80.7% chance his current tenure lasts through 31 December Explore the forecast →
Sébastien Lecornu’s main mission has been to make sure France has a budget, so much so that he has neglected the first hours of the movement, before it became out of control. Resignation or replacement without losing a no-confidence vote are now possible scenarios. This forecast covers every possibility of him leaving.
France counts the cost of the unrest, 19 October 2026.
France assureurs estimates damages to no more than 1.2B, 19 October 2026
