Mantic at the ICML AI Forecasting Workshop
An invited talk, three workshop papers, and a dinner
Members of Technical Staff, Scott Jeen and Matthew Aitchison, are representing Mantic at ICML this week.
Scott is giving an invited talk at the Workshop on AI Forecasting on Saturday 11th July from 13:30 to 14:15 in the Grand Ballroom (104–105)
Matthew and Scott will present three papers (details below) in the poster session on Saturday 11th July from 12:15 to 13:30 in Hall A.
We’re hosting a dinner on Thursday 9th July
Reach out to Scott or Matthew directly to meet up and learn more about Mantic.
Invited talk: Towards Superhuman Forecasting
Scott’s invited talk is about the path to superhuman forecasting, covering how AI systems have achieved human-level forecasting, asking whether the methods we’ve used to get this far will keep working, and outlining some paths we see for making further progress.
The talk is provisionally scheduled to run after lunch on Saturday 11th from 13:30 to 14:15 in the Grand Ballroom (104–105). Check the workshop site for final scheduling details on the day.
Spotlight: Reaching the frontier of AI forecasting with reinforcement learning
Scott and Matthew will present their work on reaching the frontier of AI forecasting with reinforcement learning, accepted as spotlight at the workshop. The paper explains how we raised gpt-oss-120b to frontier model performance (as we previously introduced on the Thinking Machines website) .
Poster: Diversity is the strength of the AI crowd
Matthew and Scott will present our investigation into how the wisdom of the crowds applies to a crowd of AIs. We find that certain weaker models — in this case, Grok 4 — can earn their place in the team by contributing a diversity of thinking, which makes them less substitutable than the frontier models.
Poster: An adversarial tournament design for efficiently probing the frontier of AI forecasting
Scott and Matthew will be presenting our work in developing a new kind of forecasting tournament designed to more efficiently probe the frontier. Unlike existing tournaments, we have participants both making forecasts and posing forecasting questions, with the question-writers scored for how much disagreement they are able to induce among the forecasters. Our first tournament using this design, Series 1, is live now and we have previously written about the idea on this blog.
Meet the team
Come find Scott and Matthew this Saturday 11th July at:
The forecasting workshop (Grand Ballroom).
The poster session: 12:15 to 13:30 in Hall A.
Or reach out directly over LinkedIn (Scott, Matthew) or the ICML app.