Mantic surpasses the top human forecasters

2026 opens the era of superhuman forecasting.

This summer, for the first time ever, Mantic beat all 676 human participants, including professional forecasters, in the Metaculus Cup. Only last year, experts believed this achievement was still a decade away.

The Metaculus Cup is the preeminent forecasting tournament: 500-1000 people compete over who can make the most accurate predictions. Participants submit probabilistic estimates on around 60 different world events, and score higher for assigning greater weight to the eventual outcome.

For example, for the Colombian presidential election, Mantic identified Abelardo de la Espriella as the favourite a week before the human community did. Mantic outperformed the crowd in predicting Spider-Man box office revenues, and numerous other questions across geopolitics and technology.

In the same competition, Mantic beat all the other AI startups, and beat all frontier models running on a standard harness provided by the competition organisers. Models like GPT-6 and Kimi K3 provide a strong foundation, but need the right scaffolding and fine-tuning to maximise their forecasting capabilities.

Image preview — The specific Anthropic and OpenAI model displayed each season is the most recent flagship model that participated throughout the competition. These models are entered by Metaculus, the tournament organisers, using a standardised harness.

Supercharging the world’s decision-making

Companies, investors, and governments are facing a world of increasing volatility and uncertainty. Against this backdrop, decision-makers need the best possible technology for understanding their environment and acting with confidence.

Mantic exists to serve these people. Our product helps users create and track personalised forecasts across the issues that affect their work, and includes MCP and API access.

Some of the world’s leading hedge funds are already using Mantic to predict market-moving events across the domains of geopolitics, macroeconomics, and business. In particular, Mantic has excelled at predicting the timing of events. For example, Mantic was more pessimistic than oil markets about a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Fortune 500 customers are adopting Mantic to inform their strategic decision-making around M&A and the release of new products. We receive inbound interest across an abundant set of applications, from supply chain management and demand forecasting to executive-level planning.

We’ve raised $25mn to scale

Today, we’re announcing a $25mn fundraise, led by Radical Ventures, with participation from Balderton, Thinking Machines, DRW, FT Ventures, M12 (Microsoft’s venture capital fund), Episode 1, Charlie Songhurst, and Thomas Wolf.

With this capital, we are significantly scaling up the team and the compute and data powering Mantic’s forecasts; and we have growing capacity to work with ambitious partners.

Join the mission

We’re actively hiring across AI research, engineering, product development, sales, and operations.

We’re also onboarding new customers, especially traders in financial markets.

To get involved, please reach out at contact@mantic.com.

Mantic raises a further $25mn to scale…